Peak Oil
Petroleum derivatives have proven to be superb fuels for transportation and mobile power (farming, mining, forestry, etc). There can be no doubt that these fuels will become scarce and costly – too costly to burn casually, as we have been doing. The only question is whether this will happen in 5, 15, or 50 years.
The debate now should be about how our society – our civilisation – will cope with the inevitable disruption which must occur when we are forced to adjust away from petroleum.
Personal transport – the private car – is, by far, the most difficult issue. The requirement for complete versatility means energy storage. Battery technology isn’t really there yet, and may never be as versatile as petroleum. Hydrogen is extremely costly to implement (the fuel cell). It is also energy wasting to produce, and to store. It is likely that we will never see hydrogen-powered vehicles.
Mass land transportation is relatively easy. We can rebuild the dense rail network we once had and electrify it. The electricity – largely from non-renewable sources today – can be generated in various ways. One can see future technological “fixes” which will make this happen. Europe is well along this road now, for intercity travel, commuter rail, and urban trams/subways.
Air transport cannot be electrified. There is little liklihood that batteries will ever achieve the combination of energy capacity and light weight required to power a transport aircraft. Lighter-than-air vessels (dirigibles) could be battery powered, but we are not really thinking about that today.
Our other energy requirements – for heating or to power industry for example – are easily replaced by electricity, or by direct solar energy.
If we are to use electricity to power far more of our society than we now do, we will have to intensify our effort on the efficiency front. However, the engineering path is clear and needs little in the way of “breakthroughs” to implement. We simply have to see the long term advantage of designing efficiency into everything we build.
How should we make this transition happen?
The simplest, most transparent way forward is through a carbon tax. This should start relatively small, but be guaranteed to rise annually in small, but meaningful increments. This will give people time to implement an energy efficiency strategy suitable to their needs.
I can already hear the cries of “unfair to the poor” and “industry will flee”. The former is a real issue, and best dealt with by carefully targeted relief payments.
The threatened departure of industry is a more serious problem. It would be helpful if many nations agreed to move forward in lock-step. If some nations refuse to do so, the solution is to implement a carbon tax on imports from those countries which do not agree. Such a tax must be calibrated to nullify any economic advantage they might gain by not having their own carbon tax.
The bottom line is that the sooner we start, the less disruption we will experience when we pass the point of peak oil.
Let’s get started now!
Peter Bursztyn
Barrie, Ont.